AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 9

Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack
4:7
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.43.2
High danger
45
Chances
1010
Shots
2331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal31
10Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances5
2.35Expected goals3.20

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–94–53–21.1–0.8
2nd6–144–21–10.7–1.3
3rd7–82–30–20.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand
Shots faced
31
Saves
24
Allowed
7
xGA
3.20
GSAx
-3.80
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
2.35
GSAx
-1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:37Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 7:49Penalty
  • 1st 10:25Michael Buchinger (0–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 11:01Penalty
  • 1st 12:49Bryce McConnell-Barker (1–2)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 14:16Brandon Scanlin (2–2)low · 36 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 14:28Penalty
  • 1st 16:53Kalle Väisänen (3–2)low · 39 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 17:38Penalty
  • 1st 19:25Penalty
  • 2nd 3:22Brennan Othmann (4–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 17:05Dillon Dube (4–3)grade A · 44 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 19:43Matthew Peca (4–4)low · 47 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 1:53Penalty
  • 3rd 2:50Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (4–5)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 12:01Dylan Peterson (4–6)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 12:21Penalty
  • 3rd 14:31Penalty
  • 3rd 15:04Chris Wagner (4–7)empty net · low · 64 ft · beat Dylan Garand