Chicago Wolves at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Chicago Wolves

3:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

CHIRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 2.31.1
High danger: 12
Chances: 92
Shots: 2719

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal19

9Scoring chances2

1High-danger chances2

2.29Expected goals1.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–4	2–0	1–0	0.6–0.1
2nd	11–9	5–2	0–2	1.0–0.7
3rd	9–6	2–0	0–0	0.7–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	2:29 of the 3rd	17:31	12:06	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.29
GSAx: -0.71

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.09
GSAx: +0.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 15:12Gleb Trikozov (1–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 16:47Penalty
3rd 1:52Justin Robidas (2–0)low · 22 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 2:29Evan Vierling (3–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 6:44Rem Pitlick (3–1)low · 39 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 12:36Penalty