San Diego Gulls at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Diego Gulls

5:4

Final / SO

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 3.04.5
High danger: 710
Chances: 919
Shots: 2442

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal42

9Scoring chances19

7High-danger chances10

3.04Expected goals4.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	4–6	3–1	1.1–1.0
2nd	7–16	2–9	1–7	0.6–1.8
3rd	7–14	3–3	3–2	1.2–1.3
OT	1–3	0–1	0–0	0.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:14	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.45
GSAx: +0.45

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: -0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Penalty
1st 3:25Nathan Gaucher (1–0)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Isak Posch
1st 5:32Penalty
1st 10:13Penalty
1st 17:36Penalty
1st 19:24Nico Myatovic (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 4:25Wyatt Aamodt (2–1)low · 62 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 7:21Tye Felhaber (2–2)high · 8 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 14:08Penalty
3rd 1:26Penalty
3rd 5:35Jack Ahcan (2–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 8:34Chase Bradley (2–4)low · 21 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 12:45Nathan Gaucher (3–4)low · 35 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 19:34Justin Bailey (4–4)grade A · 9 ft · beat Isak Posch