Utica Comets at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Utica Comets

2:4

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

UTCBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.02.4
High danger: 14
Chances: 98
Shots: 3035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal35

9Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances4

2.02Expected goals2.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	2–4	0–1	0.5–1.0
2nd	7–13	4–3	0–2	0.7–0.8
3rd	11–10	3–1	1–1	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -1.62

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:40Penalty
1st 2:40Penalty
1st 7:34Penalty
1st 7:51Penalty
1st 8:05Daylan Kuefler (0–1)5v4 · high · 42 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 11:39Kyle Criscuolo (1–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 16:18Marshall Warren (1–2)low · 48 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 1:31Liam Foudy (1–3)low · 40 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 6:49Penalty
2nd 12:59Shane Lachance (2–3)low · 53 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 14:53Penalty
2nd 15:52Penalty
2nd 15:52Penalty
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 19:06Adam Beckman (2–4)empty net · low · 137 ft · beat Nico Daws