Laval Rocket at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Laval Rocket

2:3

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

LAVSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 1.63.1
High danger: 34
Chances: 614
Shots: 1728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal28

6Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances4

1.61Expected goals3.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	4–6	3–2	0.9–1.4
2nd	5–11	1–5	0–1	0.3–1.1
3rd	4–6	1–3	0–1	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: +0.11

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.61
GSAx: -0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:09Adam Engström (1–0)low · 59 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 3:43Penalty
1st 3:43Penalty
1st 5:28Jared Davidson (2–0)high · 18 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 7:03Penalty
1st 7:15Mitchell Chaffee (2–1)4v5 · low · 33 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 12:59Penalty
1st 14:39Ethan Gauthier (2–2)5v4 · medium · 7 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 19:17Penalty
2nd 1:32Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:28Penalty
3rd 2:42Dylan Duke (2–3)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 7:36Penalty
3rd 8:05Penalty