Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

1:5

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

WBSCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 27
Chances: 912
Shots: 2425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances7

2.21Expected goals2.91

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	6–4	1–2	1.0–1.2
2nd	7–10	3–6	1–3	0.7–1.2
3rd	10–4	0–2	0–2	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: -2.09

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: +1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:42Jack Devine (0–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 16:42Nolan Foote (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 4:59Penalty
2nd 7:39Penalty
2nd 9:23Ben Steeves (0–3)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 9:51Penalty
2nd 11:05Ryan Graves (1–3)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
2nd 11:56Jack Devine (1–4)high · 12 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 19:54Penalty
3rd 4:37Penalty
3rd 13:51Nate Smith (1–5)empty net · low · 66 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 18:27Penalty