Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

3:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

LVSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 2.51.3
High danger: 42
Chances: 134
Shots: 2316

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal16

13Scoring chances4

4High-danger chances2

2.46Expected goals1.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	3–2	2–2	0.7–0.8
2nd	7–4	4–2	1–0	0.7–0.4
3rd	9–2	6–0	1–0	1.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	19:48 of the 3rd	0:12	0:12	+0.003 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -0.54

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.29
GSAx: -0.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:54Penalty
1st 13:30Penalty
2nd 0:44Penalty
2nd 0:52Calle Rosén (0–1)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 5:56Penalty
2nd 7:59Penalty
2nd 16:15Penalty
2nd 16:53Matt Luff (0–2)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 19:25Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:27Lane Pederson (1–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 1:58Penalty
3rd 3:07Christian Kyrou (2–2)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 3:57Penalty
3rd 3:57Penalty
3rd 6:10Penalty
3rd 19:48Anthony Richard (3–2)low · 31 ft · beat Georgii Romanov