Cleveland Monsters at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Cleveland Monsters

2:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLEHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.73.0
High danger: 24
Chances: 711
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

7Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances4

2.67Expected goals3.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–14	3–5	2–2	1.3–1.4
2nd	5–10	1–4	0–0	0.4–0.9
3rd	12–7	3–2	0–2	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +0.00

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:33Tate Singleton (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 8:33Penalty
1st 12:26Louie Belpedio (1–1)low · 41 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
1st 18:14Penalty
1st 18:14Penalty
2nd 12:58Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
3rd 1:05Bogdan Trineyev (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 6:17Penalty
3rd 6:17Penalty
3rd 10:28Penalty
3rd 11:45Luca Del Bel Belluz (2–2)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 13:31Penalty
3rd 13:39Grant Cruikshank (2–3)4v5 · grade A · 14 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 16:52Penalty
3rd 16:52Penalty