Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies

3:6

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

TORBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.63.8
High danger: 46
Chances: 915
Shots: 2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances6

2.62Expected goals3.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–15	4–8	2–4	1.3–2.0
2nd	8–8	4–2	2–0	0.9–0.7
3rd	4–10	1–5	0–2	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 27
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.79
GSAx: -2.21

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:11Penalty
1st 10:06Philippe Daoust (0–1)low · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 13:06Penalty
1st 14:03Vinni Lettieri (1–1)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
1st 15:46Stephen Halliday (1–2)high · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 4:58Penalty
2nd 7:52Luke Haymes (2–2)low · 18 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 9:05Penalty
2nd 9:05Penalty
2nd 18:47Hayden Hodgson (2–3)low · 33 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:12Olle Lycksell (2–4)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 6:43Benoit-Olivier Groulx (3–4)low · 60 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 11:00Arthur Kaliyev (3–5)medium · 17 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 17:43Arthur Kaliyev (3–6)empty net · low · 29 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov