Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins

1:5

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.44.1
High danger: 29
Chances: 1115
Shots: 2528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 40% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal28

11Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances9

2.37Expected goals4.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	4–3	0–1	0.9–0.7
2nd	7–13	1–6	0–4	0.4–1.9
3rd	9–8	6–6	2–4	1.0–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.12
GSAx: -0.88

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: +1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:16Penalty
1st 2:45Adam Sýkora (0–1)4v5 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 4:02Penalty
1st 5:06Brett Berard (0–2)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 18:56Penalty
2nd 5:26Penalty
2nd 14:33Penalty
2nd 14:33Penalty
2nd 16:53Trey Fix-Wolansky (0–3)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 17:19Penalty
2nd 19:57Penalty
3rd 7:05Penalty
3rd 8:38Justin Dowling (0–4)4v5 · high · 7 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 12:11Penalty
3rd 12:11Penalty
3rd 12:11Penalty
3rd 12:11Penalty
3rd 12:11Penalty
3rd 12:54Riley Tufte (1–4)4v5 · medium · 14 ft · beat Callum Tung
3rd 15:05Jackson Dorrington (1–5)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Simon Zajicek