Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars

3:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.83.0
High danger: 55
Chances: 1310
Shots: 2731

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances5

2.76Expected goals2.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–7	6–2	3–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	10–9	6–3	2–1	1.2–0.7
3rd	4–15	1–5	0–3	0.2–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:11	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: +1.95

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.76
GSAx: -0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:08Penalty
1st 13:08Penalty
2nd 3:09Jack Becker (1–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 17:42Antonio Stranges (2–0)high · 11 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 19:03Penalty
3rd 4:00Penalty
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 12:16Bradly Nadeau (2–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 18:41Kole Lind (3–1)empty net · low · 159 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 20:00Penalty