AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 10

Iowa Wild at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Iowa Wild
4:5
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

IATUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
3.42.5
High danger
42
Chances
88
Shots
2927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal27
8Scoring chances8
4High-danger chances2
3.44Expected goals2.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–122–21–10.5–0.8
2nd9–102–40–10.6–1.1
3rd14–33–22–01.7–0.4
OT2–21–01–00.7–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA37:42 of the 3rd12:185:01+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.44
GSAx
-0.56
Riley Mercer
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-2.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:09Penalty
  • 1st 9:03Penalty
  • 1st 13:36Penalty
  • 1st 18:58Max Szuber (0–1)low · 54 ft · beat Riley Mercer
  • 2nd 3:39Oskar Olausson (1–1)low · 45 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 6:18Penalty
  • 2nd 10:03Julian Lutz (1–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Riley Mercer
  • 2nd 11:13Penalty
  • 2nd 11:13Penalty
  • 2nd 16:19Ty Tullio (1–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Riley Mercer
  • 2nd 17:00Penalty
  • 3rd 5:51Penalty
  • 3rd 5:51Penalty
  • 3rd 7:42Max Szuber (1–4)medium · 30 ft · beat Riley Mercer
  • 3rd 9:06Gerry Mayhew (2–4)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 11:55Penalty
  • 3rd 13:03David Špaček (3–4)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:39Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (4–4)grade A · 17 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • OT 2:15Kevin Rooney (4–5)low · 17 ft · beat Riley Mercer