Henderson Silver Knights at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

2:3

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HSKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.82.1
High danger: 53
Chances: 98
Shots: 3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances3

2.77Expected goals2.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–13	6–4	4–1	1.5–0.9
2nd	8–10	2–3	0–2	0.6–1.0
3rd	15–2	1–1	1–0	0.7–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: +0.74

Cameron Whitehead

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: -0.86

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 1
Saves: 1
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.02
GSAx: +0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:56Jonas Røndbjerg (1–0)high · 17 ft · beat Victor Östman
1st 11:18Jackson Hallum (2–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Victor Östman
1st 17:16Penalty
1st 19:46Penalty
1st 19:46Penalty
2nd 2:21Eduard Šalé (2–1)low · 18 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 7:56Caden Price (2–2)low · 55 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 12:20Ian McKinnon (2–3)grade A · rebound · 25 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
3rd 18:39Penalty