San Diego Gulls at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Diego Gulls

0:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 3.14.2
High danger: 512
Chances: 1316
Shots: 3536

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal36

13Scoring chances16

5High-danger chances12

3.14Expected goals4.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	1–4	0–3	0.3–1.0
2nd	9–17	0–10	0–8	0.4–2.6
3rd	20–8	12–2	5–1	2.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Buteyets

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.23
GSAx: -1.77

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 35
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: +3.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:34Penalty
1st 2:34Penalty
2nd 1:30Danil Gushchin (0–1)low · 63 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 4:10Alex Barré-Boulet (0–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
2nd 6:02Penalty
2nd 6:02Penalty
2nd 12:26Chase Bradley (0–3)high · 16 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
2nd 14:00Jayson Megna (0–4)high · 4 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
2nd 15:08Tristen Nielsen (0–5)high · 10 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
3rd 2:19Penalty
3rd 6:25Penalty
3rd 8:33Jayson Megna (0–6)grade A · 8 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
3rd 9:20Penalty
3rd 15:09Penalty