AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 11

Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans
6:5
Final / OT
Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
3.92.7
High danger
71
Chances
1311
Shots
2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30
13Scoring chances11
7High-danger chances1
3.89Expected goals2.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–112–41–00.8–1.1
2nd14–89–35–02.4–0.6
3rd6–112–41–10.7–1.0
OT1–00–00–00.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL32:47 of the 3rd17:139:38+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Scott Ratzlaff
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
2.70
GSAx
-2.30
James Reimer
Shots faced
28
Saves
22
Allowed
6
xGA
3.89
GSAx
-2.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:34Riley Fiddler-Schultz (1–0)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat James Reimer
  • 1st 8:33Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–1)low · 40 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
  • 1st 15:49Penalty
  • 1st 15:49Penalty
  • 2nd 5:46Penalty
  • 2nd 7:17Penalty
  • 2nd 8:10Penalty
  • 2nd 12:55Ryan Johnson (2–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat James Reimer
  • 2nd 14:25Brendan Warren (3–1)medium · 18 ft · beat James Reimer
  • 3rd 2:47Red Savage (4–1)high · 11 ft · beat James Reimer
  • 3rd 7:32Penalty
  • 3rd 9:29Lassi Thomson (4–2)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
  • 3rd 11:49Lassi Thomson (4–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
  • 3rd 13:40Carson Meyer (5–3)medium · 10 ft · beat James Reimer
  • 3rd 15:22Arthur Kaliyev (5–4)low · 30 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
  • 3rd 18:10Philippe Daoust (5–5)medium · 17 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
  • OT 0:13Jack Rathbone (6–5)low · 32 ft · beat James Reimer