Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

2:4

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

LVPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 3.01.9
High danger: 32
Chances: 106
Shots: 3023

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal23

10Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances2

2.98Expected goals1.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–3	1–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	8–5	3–1	0–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	15–11	5–2	2–2	1.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: +0.98

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.92
GSAx: -1.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:16Penalty
1st 7:25Ty Gallagher (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 10:59Penalty
1st 16:45Penalty
1st 16:45Penalty
1st 18:24Penalty
2nd 0:46Penalty
2nd 5:35Riley Tufte (0–2)low · 29 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 11:14Alexis Gendron (1–2)low · 37 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 13:58Devin Kaplan (2–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 17:32Frederic Brunet (2–3)low · 17 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 15:40Penalty
3rd 15:40Penalty
3rd 15:40Penalty
3rd 18:53Penalty
3rd 19:17Penalty
3rd 19:55Patrick Brown (2–4)empty net · low · 108 ft