Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers

2:3

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 1.91.8
High danger: 51
Chances: 65
Shots: 1822

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal22

6Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances1

1.87Expected goals1.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	3–2	2–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	5–9	2–2	2–1	0.5–0.8
3rd	6–4	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: -1.21

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:58Nick Poisson (0–1)low · 35 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
1st 8:52Penalty
1st 12:22Sam Morton (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 17:41Ty Mueller (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
1st 18:24Penalty
2nd 4:30Dryden Hunt (2–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 12:36Penalty
3rd 10:24Anri Ravinskis (2–3)low · 31 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev