Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign

0:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.72.2
High danger: 54
Chances: 98
Shots: 2523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal23

9Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances4

2.69Expected goals2.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–10	2–3	2–2	0.5–1.0
2nd	11–7	2–2	1–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	10–6	5–3	2–1	1.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	17:55 of the 3rd	2:05	2:05	+0.047 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: +2.69

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.19
GSAx: -0.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:22Penalty
1st 10:36Penalty
2nd 6:06Penalty
2nd 17:05Penalty
2nd 19:00Penalty
3rd 12:23Penalty
3rd 13:43Penalty
3rd 17:16Penalty
3rd 17:55Viljami Marjala (0–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 37 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 18:41Quinn Hutson (0–2)empty net · low · wrist · 94 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 19:00Viljami Marjala (0–3)empty net · low · wrist · 52 ft · beat Pheonix Copley