Springfield Thunderbirds at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:8

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SPRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 1.32.3
High danger: 03
Chances: 19
Shots: 1825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal25

1Scoring chances9

0High-danger chances3

1.26Expected goals2.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–8	0–3	0–1	0.2–0.8
2nd	6–10	1–4	0–1	0.5–0.9
3rd	9–7	0–2	0–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.68
GSAx: -2.32

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.26
GSAx: -0.74

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 2
Allowed: 4
xGA: 0.65
GSAx: -3.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:48Liam McLinskey (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 8:51Penalty
1st 9:31Mikulas Hovorka (0–2)4v5 · low · 37 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 13:22Ben Steeves (0–3)high · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 14:27Hunter St. Martin (0–4)medium · 23 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 16:08Ben Steeves (0–5)medium · 17 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 19:56Matthew Peca (1–5)low · 16 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 0:42Wilmer Skoog (1–6)medium · 12 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 3:57Nolan Foote (1–7)medium · 18 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 9:26Penalty
2nd 9:26Penalty
2nd 9:26Penalty
2nd 9:26Penalty
3rd 7:22Dillon Dube (2–7)low · 51 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 11:09Penalty
3rd 11:33Michael Benning (2–8)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Georgii Romanov