AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 13

Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose
2:6
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
2.54.5
High danger
312
Chances
516
Shots
3032

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal32
5Scoring chances16
3High-danger chances12
2.47Expected goals4.49

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–131–71–50.5–1.8
2nd10–92–51–40.8–1.5
3rd13–102–41–31.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
4.49
GSAx
-1.51
Owen Flores
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.47
GSAx
+0.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:59Penalty
  • 1st 5:03Penalty
  • 1st 7:23Penalty
  • 1st 7:23Penalty
  • 1st 9:47Mason Shaw (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Owen Flores
  • 1st 10:22Penalty
  • 1st 15:02Penalty
  • 1st 15:49Penalty
  • 1st 16:12Penalty
  • 1st 17:54Sam Rinzel (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 31 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 19:01Penalty
  • 2nd 2:07Harrison Israels (1–2)high · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 5:09Penalty
  • 2nd 7:56Jackson Cates (1–3)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 10:00Penalty
  • 2nd 11:44Kevin Lombardi (1–4)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 16:09Penalty
  • 3rd 1:08Rem Pitlick (1–5)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 2:48Penalty
  • 3rd 4:02Samuel Fagemo (2–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Owen Flores
  • 3rd 6:22Martin Misiak (2–6)medium · 20 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 12:16Penalty
  • 3rd 15:33Penalty