AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 13

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Coachella Valley Firebirds
5:2
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

CVTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
3.42.2
High danger
51
Chances
106
Shots
3826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal26
10Scoring chances6
5High-danger chances1
3.35Expected goals2.23

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–124–32–10.9–1.2
2nd18–65–12–01.7–0.4
3rd11–81–21–00.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee
Shots faced
38
Saves
33
Allowed
5
xGA
3.35
GSAx
-1.65
Victor Östman
Shots faced
26
Saves
24
Allowed
2
xGA
2.23
GSAx
+0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:16Justin Ertel (0–1)low · 16 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 1st 7:28Penalty
  • 1st 11:52Antonio Stranges (0–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 2nd 6:17Penalty
  • 2nd 9:50Ian McKinnon (1–2)low · 61 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 10:55Caden Price (2–2)low · 56 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 11:40Jani Nyman (3–2)high · 12 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 17:49Logan Morrison (4–2)empty net · low · 26 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 18:11Jani Nyman (5–2)empty net · low · 49 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 19:00Penalty
  • 3rd 19:00Penalty
  • 3rd 19:00Penalty
  • 3rd 19:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty