Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign

6:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.33.5
High danger: 55
Chances: 915
Shots: 2134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances15

5High-danger chances5

2.26Expected goals3.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	4–2	1–1	0.9–0.8
2nd	5–17	1–10	1–2	0.5–1.8
3rd	8–7	4–3	3–2	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	3	1:52 of the 3rd	18:08	17:53	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.47
GSAx: +0.47

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 15
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: -3.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:02Samuel Bolduc (1–0)low · 56 ft · beat Isak Posch
1st 11:26Chase Bradley (1–1)high · 7 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 2:08Francesco Pinelli (2–1)low · 65 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 2:56Tim Rego (3–1)low · 24 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 4:51Penalty
2nd 8:00Penalty
2nd 10:14Penalty
2nd 14:42Penalty
3rd 1:52Aatu Jämsen (4–1)high · 9 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 9:53Nikita Prishchepov (4–2)high · 7 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 10:08Jared Wright (5–2)high · 11 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 10:39Penalty
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 11:40Martin Chromiak (6–2)5v4 · medium · 57 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 19:32Chase Bradley (6–3)medium · 36 ft · beat Erik Portillo