Hartford Wolf Pack at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:2

Final / OT

Hershey Bears

The sheet

HFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 3.02.1
High danger: 24
Chances: 810
Shots: 3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances4

2.96Expected goals2.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–4	2–1	1–1	0.8–0.3
2nd	10–14	2–5	0–3	0.7–1.1
3rd	9–5	3–3	0–0	0.6–0.5
OT	4–2	1–1	1–0	0.8–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: -0.04

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: +0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:50David Gucciardi (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 4:02Andrew Cristall (0–2)high · 14 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 6:08Penalty
2nd 11:54Dylan Roobroeck (1–2)low · 37 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 14:16Brett Berard (2–2)low · 38 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
OT 3:00Brett Berard (3–2)grade A · rebound · 168 ft · beat Clay Stevenson