Coachella Valley Firebirds at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Coachella Valley Firebirds

6:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

CVTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 3.61.9
High danger: 21
Chances: 144
Shots: 3828

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal28

14Scoring chances4

2High-danger chances1

3.56Expected goals1.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	3–3	0–0	0.8–1.0
2nd	17–7	6–1	1–1	1.8–0.4
3rd	10–9	5–0	1–0	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	14:19 of the 3rd	5:41	5:41	+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 32
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: -2.44

Jack LaFontaine

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: -1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:48Ville Ottavainen (1–0)low · 61 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 6:57Penalty
1st 10:36Carson Rehkopf (2–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 10:44Penalty
1st 11:24Antonio Stranges (2–1)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
2nd 2:17Penalty
2nd 17:17Jani Nyman (3–1)grade A · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 18:07Luke Krys (3–2)low · 64 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
3rd 2:06Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (4–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 12:00Matthew Seminoff (4–3)low · 34 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
3rd 14:19Jani Nyman (5–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 19:15John Hayden (6–3)empty net · low · 57 ft · beat Rémi Poirier