Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign

4:3

Final / SO

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 4.92.7
High danger: 115
Chances: 198
Shots: 3638

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal38

19Scoring chances8

11High-danger chances5

4.92Expected goals2.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–14	0–4	0–4	0.1–1.3
2nd	8–10	5–1	2–1	1.2–0.6
3rd	18–12	12–1	7–0	2.6–0.5
OT	5–2	2–2	2–0	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:37 of the 3rd	19:23	11:08	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -0.28

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.92
GSAx: +1.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:33Jayson Megna (0–1)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 5:12Penalty
1st 8:04Zakhar Bardakov (0–2)high · rebound · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 12:00Penalty
2nd 0:42Penalty
2nd 5:51Penalty
2nd 10:15Penalty
3rd 0:37Jason Polin (0–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 3:45Penalty
3rd 4:13Nikita Alexandrov (1–3)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 17:01Kenny Connors (2–3)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 19:03Penalty
3rd 19:41Nikita Alexandrov (3–3)5v4 · grade A · 19 ft · beat Trent Miner
OT 5:00Penalty