Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

3:1

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.13.1
High danger: 45
Chances: 712
Shots: 2632

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 70% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances5

2.15Expected goals3.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–11	0–5	0–3	0.1–1.3
2nd	10–13	1–4	1–0	0.5–1.0
3rd	14–8	6–3	3–2	1.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: +2.07

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: -0.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:57Penalty
1st 17:00Penalty
2nd 11:30Penalty
2nd 15:06Penalty
2nd 16:50Penalty
3rd 5:23Ryan Gagnier (1–0)low · snap · 26 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 18:44Dominic Toninato (2–0)empty net · low · 80 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 19:45John Leonard (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 19:56Samuel Savoie (3–1)empty net · low · 41 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa