Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

2:5

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 4.63.7
High danger: 118
Chances: 1811
Shots: 3736

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal36

18Scoring chances11

11High-danger chances8

4.59Expected goals3.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	3–1	2–1	1.1–0.7
2nd	14–17	8–5	7–4	2.1–1.9
3rd	13–10	7–5	2–3	1.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.59
GSAx: +2.59

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 31
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: -1.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:47Brian Halonen (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 14:25Penalty
2nd 3:25Penalty
2nd 4:21Dylan Duke (1–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 4:28Penalty
2nd 4:28Penalty
2nd 11:40Jakob Pelletier (1–2)low · 15 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 13:58Penalty
2nd 17:49Penalty
2nd 18:05Shane Lachance (2–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 0:23Penalty
3rd 10:26Penalty
3rd 15:27Brendan Furry (2–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 17:16Lucas Mercuri (2–4)high · 11 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 19:36Conor Geekie (2–5)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Nico Daws