AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 16

Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans
4:5
Final / OT
Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
3.33.8
High danger
35
Chances
1214
Shots
3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33
12Scoring chances14
3High-danger chances5
3.28Expected goals3.80

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–102–30–00.4–0.8
2nd11–144–83–41.4–2.1
3rd13–86–30–11.4–0.9
OT0–10–00–00.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC116:56 of the 3rd3:041:36+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
3.80
GSAx
-1.20
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
3.28
GSAx
-0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 12:36Penalty
  • 1st 18:59Cameron Crotty (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 2:33Tyler Boucher (0–2)low · 32 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 4:22Penalty
  • 2nd 6:36Penalty
  • 2nd 13:38Penalty
  • 2nd 14:59Penalty
  • 2nd 15:32Wyatt Bongiovanni (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 17:43Isak Rosén (1–3)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 18:14Jagger Joshua (2–3)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 0:45Keean Washkurak (2–4)low · 38 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 10:21Isak Rosén (3–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 11:21Penalty
  • 3rd 16:23Penalty
  • 3rd 18:32Isak Rosén (4–4)low · 58 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • OT 0:24Arthur Kaliyev (4–5)low · 31 ft · beat Devon Levi