Bridgeport Islanders at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

3:1

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

BRILVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 4.03.0
High danger: 63
Chances: 1113
Shots: 3834

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal34

11Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances3

4.03Expected goals3.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–10	2–2	2–1	1.3–0.7
2nd	11–14	3–6	1–1	1.3–1.3
3rd	12–10	6–5	3–1	1.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.03
GSAx: +1.03

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +2.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:31Penalty
1st 13:30Penalty
1st 13:37Adam Beckman (1–0)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
1st 17:33Penalty
1st 18:41Liam Foudy (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 2:13Penalty
2nd 17:37Ethan Bear (3–0)low · 34 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 19:30Penalty
3rd 4:10Penalty
3rd 12:17Penalty
3rd 17:37Oliver Bonk (3–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 18:33Penalty