Hartford Wolf Pack at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

4:3

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HFDWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.72.0
High danger: 61
Chances: 159
Shots: 3224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances1

3.74Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	5–2	1–0	1.1–0.4
2nd	13–9	5–4	3–1	1.5–0.9
3rd	10–10	5–3	2–0	1.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.74
GSAx: -0.26

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:49Gabe Klassen (0–1)medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 5:50Penalty
1st 6:36Jaroslav Chmelar (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 22 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 11:41Gabe Klassen (1–2)grade A · snap · rebound · 9 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 12:07Brett Berard (2–2)low · 23 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 14:26Kalle Väisänen (3–2)medium · tip · 18 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 19:15Justin Dowling (4–2)grade A · snap · rebound · 11 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 9:38Aidan McDonough (4–3)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 17:05Penalty