AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 16

Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves
5:4
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
29%71%
xG
2.63.8
High danger
25
Chances
811
Shots
2436

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal36
8Scoring chances11
2High-danger chances5
2.56Expected goals3.77

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–130–50–20.4–1.4
2nd9–164–62–31.3–2.0
3rd8–74–00–00.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL119:31 of the 3rd0:290:29+0.009 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
3.77
GSAx
-0.23
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
24
Saves
19
Allowed
5
xGA
2.56
GSAx
-2.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 2nd 3:58Shawn Element (0–1)low · 8 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 6:00Justin Robidas (1–1)low · 50 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 7:24Penalty
  • 2nd 9:43Nikita Pavlychev (2–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 12:09Kyle Marino (2–2)low · 42 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 13:30Penalty
  • 2nd 14:39Daniel Carr (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 16:21Penalty
  • 2nd 18:01Noel Gunler (3–3)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 8:00Justin Robidas (4–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 14:59Tanner Molendyk (4–4)low · 32 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 3rd 16:37Penalty
  • 3rd 19:31Skyler Brind’Amour (5–4)low · 22 ft · beat Magnus Chrona