Toronto Marlies at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Toronto Marlies

3:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TORIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.81.9
High danger: 32
Chances: 117
Shots: 3122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal22

11Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances2

2.77Expected goals1.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	1–0	0–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	13–8	5–4	1–1	1.1–0.8
3rd	11–8	5–3	2–1	1.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	6:11 of the 3rd	13:49	13:49	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -0.23

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -0.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:48Penalty
1st 7:53Vinni Lettieri (1–0)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 11:47Penalty
2nd 2:10Penalty
2nd 9:17Benoit-Olivier Groulx (2–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 18:16Penalty
3rd 2:24Penalty
3rd 6:11Vinni Lettieri (3–0)low · 28 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 8:10Penalty
3rd 13:51Oskar Olausson (3–1)low · 25 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 19:24Oskar Olausson (3–2)medium · tip · 25 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov