AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 16

San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda
2:4
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
30%70%
xG
2.43.1
High danger
36
Chances
712
Shots
2725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal25
7Scoring chances12
3High-danger chances6
2.36Expected goals3.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–72–31–00.5–0.7
2nd12–91–50–40.8–1.3
3rd9–94–42–21.1–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.36
GSAx
+0.36
Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
3.05
GSAx
-0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:18Miko Matikka (0–1)low · 7 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 10:54Penalty
  • 1st 12:52Kasper Halttunen (1–1)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 0:56Penalty
  • 2nd 4:52Ethan Cardwell (2–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 11:10Penalty
  • 2nd 14:49Cameron Hebig (2–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 17:36Penalty
  • 2nd 17:36Penalty
  • 3rd 3:24Austin Poganski (2–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 5:11Penalty
  • 3rd 8:48Penalty
  • 3rd 18:30Ben McCartney (2–4)empty net · low · 59 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere