Bakersfield Condors at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Bakersfield Condors

5:1

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

BAKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.33.2
High danger: 105
Chances: 1311
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances11

10High-danger chances5

3.30Expected goals3.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	3–2	2–1	0.8–0.7
2nd	11–10	7–5	7–4	1.9–1.5
3rd	6–13	3–4	1–0	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: +2.20

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 14
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.68
GSAx: -2.32

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 6
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.62
GSAx: +0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:51Seth Griffith (1–0)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Connor Murphy
1st 10:54Penalty
1st 12:34Max Jones (2–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 7 ft · beat Connor Murphy
1st 15:25Penalty
1st 17:21Aydar Suniev (2–1)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Connor Ungar
2nd 5:57Penalty
2nd 9:09James Hamblin (3–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 6 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 10:05Penalty
2nd 10:05Penalty
2nd 10:05Penalty
2nd 11:44Penalty
2nd 12:26Penalty
2nd 12:59Penalty
2nd 13:12James Hamblin (4–1)4v5 · high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 17:49Roby Järventie (5–1)high · wrist · 7 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:27Penalty