Manitoba Moose at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Manitoba Moose

3:0

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

MBLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.63.1
High danger: 44
Chances: 911
Shots: 3028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances4

2.65Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–5	1–1	0–0	0.4–0.4
2nd	7–14	2–7	2–3	0.6–1.7
3rd	15–9	6–3	2–1	1.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	2	12:53 of the 3rd	7:07	7:07	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -0.35

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 28
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: +3.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:11Penalty
1st 19:47Penalty
1st 19:47Penalty
2nd 0:25Penalty
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 8:55Penalty
3rd 11:26Brad Lambert (1–0)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 12:14Penalty
3rd 12:53Nikita Chibrikov (2–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 35 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 17:08Mason Shaw (3–0)empty net · medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Jacob Fowler