Toronto Marlies at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Toronto Marlies

5:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TORIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 2.62.6
High danger: 65
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2222

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal22

10Scoring chances10

6High-danger chances5

2.61Expected goals2.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–7	1–4	1–2	0.3–1.1
2nd	18–7	9–3	5–2	2.3–0.7
3rd	1–8	0–3	0–1	0.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:19	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Riley Mercer

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -2.39

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.54
GSAx: +0.54

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 4
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.05
GSAx: -1.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:44Penalty
1st 2:13Borya Valis (1–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Riley Mercer
1st 4:38Carson Lambos (1–1)low · 69 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
1st 4:46Penalty
1st 6:46Caedan Bankier (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
1st 8:54Gerry Mayhew (1–3)low · tip · 15 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
1st 14:06Penalty
2nd 1:37Penalty
2nd 2:59Borya Valis (2–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Riley Mercer
2nd 6:11Penalty
2nd 7:12Penalty
2nd 10:53Logan Shaw (3–3)high · tip · 6 ft · beat Riley Mercer
2nd 16:25Logan Shaw (4–3)medium · 31 ft · beat Riley Mercer
2nd 16:44Penalty
2nd 19:59Luke Haymes (5–3)5v4 · medium · rebound · 44 ft · beat Riley Mercer
3rd 9:51Penalty
3rd 10:43Penalty
3rd 15:24Oskar Olausson (5–4)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 20:00Penalty