Syracuse Crunch at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Syracuse Crunch

4:1

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

SYRLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 64
Chances: 811
Shots: 2128

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances11

6High-danger chances4

2.24Expected goals2.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	0–4	0–2	0.4–1.0
2nd	7–11	5–5	4–2	1.0–1.3
3rd	9–7	3–2	2–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:43 of the 3rd	7:17	7:17	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jon Gillies

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: +1.90

Yaniv Perets

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: -0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:48Penalty
1st 7:57Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 2:45Penalty
2nd 4:02Dylan Duke (1–0)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
2nd 6:15Penalty
2nd 10:22Penalty
2nd 14:14Tristan Allard (2–0)high · 16 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
2nd 16:48Penalty
2nd 18:59Penalty
2nd 19:34Anthony Richard (2–1)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Jon Gillies
3rd 2:51Penalty
3rd 12:43Tommy Miller (3–1)low · 60 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
3rd 17:12Penalty
3rd 17:12Penalty
3rd 17:12Nick Abruzzese (4–1)empty net · high · 10 ft