Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

2:5

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 4.12.8
High danger: 78
Chances: 1711
Shots: 3819

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal19

17Scoring chances11

7High-danger chances8

4.07Expected goals2.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	7–4	3–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	8–6	1–5	0–5	0.5–1.5
3rd	21–5	9–2	4–2	2.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.07
GSAx: +2.07

Owen Flores

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 14
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.85
GSAx: -2.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:17Penalty
1st 6:04Evan Vierling (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Owen Flores
1st 8:42Penalty
1st 9:30Rem Pitlick (1–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 12:14Bradly Nadeau (1–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Owen Flores
1st 16:26Ryan Suzuki (1–3)medium · 20 ft · beat Owen Flores
2nd 1:10Penalty
2nd 5:11Penalty
2nd 7:40Penalty
2nd 9:22Penalty
2nd 10:01Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 10:29Ryan Suzuki (1–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Owen Flores
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 16:40Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
3rd 7:41Penalty
3rd 13:08Penalty
3rd 15:18Gleb Trikozov (1–5)empty net · high · 13 ft · beat Owen Flores
3rd 16:40Penalty
3rd 18:27Kevin Lombardi (2–5)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Cayden Primeau