Ontario Reign at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Ontario Reign

4:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

ONTTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 2.82.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 810
Shots: 2820

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal20

8Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances3

2.83Expected goals2.27

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–4	0–4	0–2	0.3–0.7
2nd	8–13	3–5	2–1	0.9–1.3
3rd	15–3	5–1	3–0	1.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:50	+0.052 pts
TEX	1	19:58 of the 3rd	0:02	0:02	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -1.17

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.27
GSAx: -0.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:09Penalty
1st 3:54Penalty
1st 14:27Sean Chisholm (0–1)high · 23 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 16:36Penalty
2nd 1:52Harrison Scott (0–2)low · 37 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 9:08Kenta Isogai (1–2)low · 41 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 11:18Penalty
2nd 12:00Cole Guttman (2–2)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 14:23Michael Karow (2–3)low · 66 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 5:07Penalty
3rd 19:46Cole Guttman (3–3)low · 40 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 19:58Jared Wright (4–3)medium · rebound · 32 ft · beat Rémi Poirier