AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 18

Cleveland Monsters at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Cleveland Monsters
2:6
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

CLEPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.63.2
High danger
38
Chances
1214
Shots
3225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal25
12Scoring chances14
3High-danger chances8
2.65Expected goals3.16

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–95–51–20.9–1.1
2nd11–75–31–11.0–0.9
3rd11–92–61–50.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLE−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLE40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
2.65
GSAx
+0.65
Ivan Fedotov
Shots faced
13
Saves
10
Allowed
3
xGA
1.93
GSAx
-1.07
Zach Sawchenko
Shots faced
12
Saves
9
Allowed
3
xGA
1.23
GSAx
-1.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:53John Farinacci (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 1st 9:27Penalty
  • 1st 9:27Penalty
  • 1st 12:56Penalty
  • 1st 19:31Frederic Brunet (0–2)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 2nd 5:59Penalty
  • 2nd 6:05Christian Wolanin (0–3)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 2nd 6:21Riley Tufte (0–4)grade A · 8 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
  • 2nd 9:05Penalty
  • 2nd 9:05Penalty
  • 2nd 9:05Penalty
  • 2nd 9:05Penalty
  • 2nd 10:42Penalty
  • 2nd 10:42Penalty
  • 2nd 10:42Penalty
  • 2nd 16:57Penalty
  • 3rd 3:40Penalty
  • 3rd 5:36Dans Locmelis (0–5)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
  • 3rd 11:43Owen Sillinger (1–5)high · 8 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 3rd 15:54Penalty
  • 3rd 16:28Owen Sillinger (2–5)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 3rd 17:38Matěj Blümel (2–6)high · 18 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov