Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears

3:4

Final / SO

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.14.1
High danger: 25
Chances: 1111
Shots: 1939

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal39

11Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances5

2.09Expected goals4.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–2	0–1	0.3–1.0
2nd	6–14	6–5	0–2	0.9–1.5
3rd	4–13	3–4	2–2	0.6–1.4
OT	3–2	1–0	0–0	0.3–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:08	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.09
GSAx: +1.09

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: -0.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:56Justin Nachbaur (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
1st 2:58Penalty
1st 10:49Penalty
2nd 2:09Penalty
2nd 4:42Penalty
2nd 4:48Penalty
2nd 6:49Penalty
2nd 7:35Penalty
2nd 7:57Trevor Carrick (1–1)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
2nd 9:18Nolan Foote (1–2)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
2nd 10:30Graeme Clarke (2–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
2nd 15:08Penalty
2nd 19:23Penalty
3rd 3:37Penalty
3rd 6:50Cam Allen (3–2)low · 25 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
3rd 19:04Michael Benning (3–3)grade A · 31 ft · beat Mitch Gibson