Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

Canadian Tire Centre · Ottawa, ON

Utica Comets

4:5

Final / SO

Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.12.7
High danger: 21
Chances: 1011
Shots: 2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances1

2.09Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–9	1–4	0–1	0.4–0.8
2nd	13–6	7–4	1–0	1.3–0.6
3rd	4–7	2–3	1–0	0.4–0.7
OT	0–7	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:08	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: -1.31

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: -1.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:19Xavier Parent (1–0)low · 27 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 7:02Penalty
1st 11:36Keean Washkurak (1–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 17:20Nathan Légaré (2–1)low · 35 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 17:53Penalty
1st 17:53Penalty
1st 17:53Penalty
2nd 2:33Tyler Boucher (2–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 4:07Xavier Bourgault (2–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 4:29Arthur Kaliyev (2–4)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 17:02Penalty
3rd 2:04Nathan Légaré (3–4)medium · 29 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 18:04Brian Halonen (4–4)grade A · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard