Henderson Silver Knights at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Henderson Silver Knights

1:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

HSKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.12.7
High danger: 64
Chances: 1411
Shots: 3232

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal32

14Scoring chances11

6High-danger chances4

3.10Expected goals2.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	5–4	3–1	1.0–1.1
2nd	9–10	4–3	2–2	0.9–0.6
3rd	13–11	5–4	1–1	1.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: +2.10

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: +0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:36Matyas Sapovaliv (1–0)medium · 7 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
1st 10:53Tye Felhaber (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 2:34Penalty
2nd 5:25Penalty
2nd 12:54Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
3rd 10:44Luke Toporowski (1–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 17:28Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Tristen Nielsen (1–3)empty net · medium · 18 ft
3rd 19:59Taylor Makar (1–4)empty net · low · 159 ft