Ontario Reign at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Ontario Reign

1:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

ONTTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 2.51.6
High danger: 53
Chances: 105
Shots: 2015

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal15

10Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances3

2.49Expected goals1.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–2	6–0	2–0	1.4–0.1
2nd	4–7	3–3	2–2	0.7–1.1
3rd	5–6	1–2	1–1	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: +1.49

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 12
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: -1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:10Artem Shlaine (0–1)low · 31 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 13:52Penalty
1st 14:32Cole Guttman (1–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 26 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
1st 17:49Penalty
1st 19:36Penalty
2nd 3:58Penalty
2nd 4:37Cameron Hughes (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 8:30Penalty
3rd 6:20Penalty
3rd 6:59Penalty
3rd 18:54Cross Hanas (1–3)empty net · low · 61 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 19:41Penalty