AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, January 19

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
3:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

WBSSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
4.92.7
High danger
33
Chances
188
Shots
4827

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

48Shots on goal27
18Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances3
4.92Expected goals2.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–115–11–11.5–1.0
2nd18–89–21–02.0–0.7
3rd14–84–51–21.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
48
Saves
45
Allowed
3
xGA
4.93
GSAx
+1.93
Sergei Murashov
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.74
GSAx
+0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:01Penalty
  • 1st 12:09Simon Robertsson (0–1)low · 21 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 2nd 1:36Valtteri Puustinen (1–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 4:00Penalty
  • 2nd 9:01Penalty
  • 2nd 11:55Penalty
  • 2nd 15:41Chase Pietila (2–1)low · 27 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 1:38Penalty
  • 3rd 3:45Matthew Peca (2–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 31 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 3rd 9:07Gabe Klassen (3–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 15:47Penalty