AHLDashboard
Tuesday, January 20

San Diego Gulls at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Diego Gulls
3:2
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
3.82.3
High danger
103
Chances
158
Shots
3128

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal28
15Scoring chances8
10High-danger chances3
3.75Expected goals2.30

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st81053211.00.9
2nd121152301.40.8
3rd10753521.30.6
OT1000000.10.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
3.75
GSAx
+0.75
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.30
GSAx
+0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 2nd 9:27Penalty
  • 2nd 12:48Nathan Gaucher (1–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 13:59Andrew Agozzino (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 15:06Penalty
  • 2nd 18:55Penalty
  • 3rd 2:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:55Max Szuber (1–2)low · 39 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 11:59Penalty
  • 3rd 13:23Justin Bailey (2–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • OT 1:25Nikita Nesterenko (3–2)low · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta