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‹ Tuesday, January 20

Laval Rocket at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Laval Rocket
4:3
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

LAVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.33.9
High danger
48
Chances
1010
Shots
2730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal30
10Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances8
2.30Expected goals3.89

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–95–63–50.9–1.9
2nd11–84–31–21.0–1.2
3rd8–131–10–10.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB119:47 of the 3rd0:130:13+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Fowler
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
3.89
GSAx
+0.89
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.30
GSAx
-1.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:12Penalty
  • 1st 2:20Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 14:45Laurent Dauphin (1–0)medium · 7 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 0:53Penalty
  • 2nd 3:52Penalty
  • 2nd 5:18Chase Wouters (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
  • 2nd 5:27Penalty
  • 2nd 5:27Penalty
  • 2nd 10:52Sean Farrell (2–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 13:27Penalty
  • 2nd 14:05Danila Klimovich (2–2)5v4 · grade A · 28 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
  • 3rd 7:24Sean Farrell (3–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 13:38Penalty
  • 3rd 14:48Jonathan Lekkerimäki (3–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
  • 3rd 19:47Florian Xhekaj (4–3)low · 13 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo