Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

6:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 3.12.6
High danger: 63
Chances: 108
Shots: 3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances3

3.06Expected goals2.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–9	1–2	0–0	0.7–0.8
2nd	12–7	6–2	3–1	1.5–0.6
3rd	10–12	3–4	3–2	0.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	9:50 of the 3rd	10:10	9:20	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 29
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: -2.94

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -1.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:47Dylan Gambrell (0–1)low · 30 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 7:27Penalty
1st 15:34Gerry Mayhew (0–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 0:24Tristan Bertucci (1–2)low · 52 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 1:52Penalty
2nd 5:35Luke Krys (2–2)low · 54 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 6:11Cross Hanas (3–2)low · 52 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 12:53Penalty
2nd 13:58Penalty
2nd 13:58Penalty
2nd 17:55Penalty
3rd 8:00Antonio Stranges (4–2)low · 36 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 9:50Cameron Hughes (5–2)high · 14 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 12:36Penalty
3rd 15:26Jaxon Nelson (5–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 16:06Carson Lambos (5–4)low · 29 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 18:23Penalty
3rd 19:10Michael Karow (6–4)empty net · low · 179 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj