San Diego Gulls at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Diego Gulls

5:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 4.92.6
High danger: 115
Chances: 2111
Shots: 3930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal30

21Scoring chances11

11High-danger chances5

4.94Expected goals2.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	19–9	10–3	8–2	2.5–0.7
2nd	15–12	7–4	3–2	1.8–1.0
3rd	5–9	4–4	0–1	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:18 of the 3rd	7:42	7:42	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 34
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.94
GSAx: -0.06

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: -0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:43Justin Bailey (1–0)grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 6:08Cal Burke (2–0)grade A · rebound · 23 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 9:15Jan Myšák (3–0)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 12:03Penalty
1st 15:52Penalty
1st 17:37Ben McCartney (3–1)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 1:17Penalty
2nd 2:22Andrew Agozzino (3–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 32 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 13:25Penalty
2nd 17:05Austin Poganski (3–3)low · 24 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 10:12Jan Myšák (4–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 12:18Nikita Nesterenko (5–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber