Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:3

Final / SO

Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.73.9
High danger: 78
Chances: 1515
Shots: 3130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal30

15Scoring chances15

7High-danger chances8

3.68Expected goals3.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.8
2nd	10–16	3–11	3–6	1.2–2.4
3rd	10–5	7–2	3–1	1.3–0.5
OT	3–3	3–0	1–0	0.5–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:47	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.68
GSAx: +0.68

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.93
GSAx: +0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:21Penalty
1st 0:43Ilya Protas (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
1st 6:42Owen Pickering (1–1)low · 50 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 12:16Penalty
1st 14:39Ville Koivunen (2–1)low · 33 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 19:04Penalty
1st 19:04Penalty
2nd 0:32Penalty
2nd 0:41Grant Cruikshank (2–2)4v5 · grade A · 22 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 8:30Andrew Cristall (2–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 8:53Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 14:16Penalty
3rd 17:43Avery Hayes (3–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson